Mon Aug-31 20:03:09
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🚨 Alert #1648 Mon Aug-03 14:50:28
AMD Options Price A 9% Earnings Move: What History Says - Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft (NASDAQ
Options markets are pricing an 8.7% move for AMD ahead of its upcoming Q2 earnings report, with historical data showing that stock performance has depended more on forward guidance than beating estimates.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -3.66% | -1.75% | 457.76 | 495.13 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | -4.85% | -1.85% | 777.38 | 840.85 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | PRICED | -3.16% | -2.35% | 376.04 | 392.45 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | PRICED | -2.94% | -1.90% | 143.27 | 152.20 | |
| TSM | · unclear | FRESH | -0.94% | -0.04% | 390.66 | 409.80 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | FRESH | -0.52% | +0.27% | 197.69 | 208.66 |
🧭 Decisions
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.