🚨 Alert #156 Fri Jul-17 17:31:25
Meta Platforms has hired former AWS senior vice president Dave Brown to lead its compute and machine learning infrastructure strategy.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -3.78% · Δ 30m +1.04% · px 639.42 (prev 664.54) → close +1.19% |
| S2 | AMZN | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell AMZN (other: Meta Platforms has hired former AWS senior vice president Dave Brown to lead its compute and machine learning infrastructure strategy.) |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | META | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy META at close, exit next close (other: Meta Platforms has hired former AWS senior vice president Dave Brown to lead its compute and machine learning infrastructure strategy.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 buy META exiting 2026-07-20] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S2 | AMZN | ▼ short | 4 | 248.16 | 247.76 | +1.60 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN S2 | +0.61% | -0.45% | The entry treated a single executive poaching story as a FRESH bearish catalyst, but a departing AWS SVP is a low-materiality personnel item — and the outcome confirmed it: the stock barely moved (+0.16% on ~$990 notional, max excursion under ±0.65%), so you captured noise, not signal. The trade "worked" only by coin-flip, which is worse than a clean loss for evaluating the rule. Concrete fix: add a materiality gate to the FRESH verdict — personnel news should only qualify if it involves the CEO/CFO or a named segment leader of the traded company itself (this was arguably more bullish for META than bearish for AMZN), and/or require a minimum implied-move threshold so sub-0.5%-expected-impact headlines are auto-classified STALE/SKIP. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.