🚨 Alert #1537 Fri Jul-31 15:25:13
Samsung reported record quarterly earnings and warned that tight supplies of advanced memory chips will persist until at least 2028, driving a sharp rebound in global semiconductor stocks including Micron.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.88% | -1.43% | 812.48 | 926.39 | |
| SMCI | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -0.90% | -2.58% | 27.36 | 28.78 | |
| counterparty NVDA | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +0.54% | -0.86% | 195.33 | 201.78 | |
| peer AMD | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +0.52% | -0.95% | 472.12 | 514.65 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -0.05% | -0.57% | 399.15 | 421.17 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MU | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.88% · Δ 30m -1.43% · px 849.44 (prev 874.66) → close -1.78% |
| S2 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long NVDA (earnings: Samsung reported record quarterly earnings and warned that tight supplies of advanced memory chips will persist until at least 2028, driving a sharp rebound in global semiconductor stocks including Micron.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long NVDA exiting 2026-07-31] → close +2.89% |
| S3 | AMD | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long AMD (earnings: Samsung reported record quarterly earnings and warned that tight supplies of advanced memory chips will persist until at least 2028, driving a sharp rebound in global semiconductor stocks including Micron.) |
| S4 | MU | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.88% · Δ 30m -1.43% · px 849.44 (prev 874.66) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | AMD | ▲ long | 2 | 491.00 | 480.01 | -21.98 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMD S3 | +0.80% | -2.19% | Signal: Wrong over the holding period — the bullish repricing thesis never materialized; AMD only reached +0.80% unrealized before falling, closing the trade down ~2.2%. Timing: The fill at 491.0 was ~1.2% above the prior close (485.39) while the decision-time context showed only +0.52% and fading momentum (-0.95% last 30m), so part of the sympathy move on the Samsung/memory news was likely already priced in at entry — though the data here can't fully confirm how much. Exit: The exit at 480.01 (-2.24% per share) is essentially the worst unrealized point (-2.19%), so nothing available was captured — but with a max of only +0.80% ever available, the dominant factor is bluntly the signal: the predicted direction was wrong, and no exit rule would have salvaged more than a small gain. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.