🚨 Alert #1223 Wed Jul-29 20:22:02
OpenAI closed a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, anchored by investments from Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.43% | -0.85% | 188.89 | 197.56 | |
| peer GOOGL | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.59% | -0.68% | 329.81 | 342.09 | |
| MSFT | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.14% | -0.79% | 389.74 | 425.60 | |
| META | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.09% | -0.67% | 521.74 | 599.09 | |
| AMZN | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | 0.00% | -0.65% | 224.70 | 232.52 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long NVDA (partnership: OpenAI closed a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, anchored by investments from Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for GOOGL → close -0.86% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (partnership: OpenAI closed a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, anchored by investments from Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 85 long lost to mat 90 long (decision 4900) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-07-30] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ▲ long | 5 | 193.13 | 190.34 | -13.95 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S1 | +0.23% | -1.44% | Signal (dominant factor): The bullish repricing call was wrong — NVDA never meaningfully rose after entry (best unrealized just +0.23%) and drifted down instead, so the predicted direction simply didn't materialize while the trade was open. Timing: Price was already down -1.43% from prior close at decision time, but since the thesis was bullish, this data doesn't show the anticipated move had already happened — it shows the stock was fading against the thesis before and after entry. Exit: The -13.95 P&L equals roughly -1.44%, i.e., the exit hit the worst unrealized point of the trade — but with only +0.23% ever available, even a perfect exit would have been near-flat; the loss is attributable to the bad signal, not exit execution. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.