kingfisher — alert #1172

🚨 Alert #1172 Wed Jul-29 17:22:25

Microsoft Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Satya Nadella Say? - Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)

benzinga.com · Wed Jul-29 17:11:00 published · Wed Jul-29 17:22:25 alerted · alerted 11m after publish · read at www.benzinga.com ↗ · earnings · mat 85

Microsoft is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings with a focus on capital expenditure guidance and AI infrastructure partnerships, including significant deployments of AMD hardware.

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi
primary MSFT	· unclear	FRESH	+0.11%	-0.33%	389.74	425.60
counterparty AMD	▲ bullish	PRICED	-6.24%	-0.70%	420.63	458.46
NVDA	· unclear	PRICED	-3.01%	-0.39%	188.89	197.56
AMZN	· unclear	PRICED	-1.16%	-0.27%	224.70	232.52
META	· unclear	PRICED	-1.07%	-0.28%	521.74	599.09
peer GOOGL	· unclear	FRESH	+0.15%	+0.17%	329.81	342.09

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	MSFT	○ skip	—	direction unclear for MSFT → close -0.66%
S2	AMD	○ skip	—	verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -6.24% · Δ 30m -0.70% · px 426.26 (prev 454.62) → close +1.34%
S3	GOOGL	○ skip	—	direction unclear for GOOGL → close +0.57%
S4	MSFT	○ skip	—	direction unclear for MSFT

📈 Trades

no trades spawned

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.