verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AAPL (other: Apple's market capitalization briefly surpassed $5 trillion, driven by strong iPhone sales and steady gains in its on-device AI strategy.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S2 long AAPL exiting 2026-07-28] → close +0.20%
overnight drift: long AAPL at close, exit next close (other: Apple's market capitalization briefly surpassed $5 trillion, driven by strong iPhone sales and steady gains in its on-device AI strategy.)
Signal: partially right — price did drift up as much as +1.39% while open, so upside existed after entry. Timing: the stock was already +0.67% off the prior close at decision time, so part of the news-driven move was consumed before entry, but the +1.39% peak shows meaningful drift remained. Exit: this is the dominant factor — the mechanical next-close exit surrendered essentially the entire available gain, closing at -0.41%, nearly the worst unrealized point (-0.44%) after the position had been up +1.39%. The direction call wasn't wrong; the fixed exit captured close to the worst outcome the position saw.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
