kingfisher — alert #1090

🚨 Alert #1090 Tue Jul-28 20:31:35

Satellite Images Suggest Iran Really Did Blow up Amazon's Data Centers in Bahrain

gizmodo.com · Tue Jul-28 20:20:49 published · Tue Jul-28 20:31:35 alerted · alerted 10m after publish · read at gizmodo.com ↗ · other · mat 85

Satellite images reportedly confirm significant damage to Amazon AWS data centers in Bahrain following alleged Iranian missile strikes.

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi
primary AMZN	▼ bearish	FRESH	-0.19%	-0.16%	228.16	234.02
GOOGL	· unclear	PRICED	+2.35%	-0.30%	325.28	335.89
peer MSFT	· unclear	REPRICING	+1.00%	-0.99%	391.72	399.95
META	· unclear	FRESH	-0.10%	-0.26%	587.04	600.38

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	AMZN	● enter	▼ short	verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short AMZN (other: Satellite images reportedly confirm significant damage to Amazon AWS data centers in Bahrain following alleged Iranian missile strikes.)
S2	-	○ skip	—	no counterparty in universe
S3	MSFT	○ skip	—	direction unclear for MSFT → close +0.01%
S4	AMZN	● enter	▼ short	overnight drift: short AMZN at close, exit next close (other: Satellite images reportedly confirm significant damage to Amazon AWS data centers in Bahrain following alleged Iranian missile strikes.)

📈 Trades

strategy	ticker	side	qty	entry	exit	P&L $	status
S1	AMZN	▼ short	4	230.83	231.03	-0.80	closed
S4	AMZN	▼ short	4	230.94	227.02	+15.68	closed

Retrospectives

ticker	mfe	mae	reflection
AMZN S1	+0.06%	-0.17%	Signal: Wrong — or at least never validated. Despite the dramatic bearish catalyst, AMZN barely moved (best case only +0.06% in the trade's favor), which suggests the market didn't credit the story; the data here can't settle whether the news was false, but the predicted move never materialized. Timing: Not the issue — entry was only ~0.2% below prior close, so almost nothing had been "used up" before entry. Exit: Poor relative to what little was available — exited at roughly -0.09%, near the worst unrealized (-0.17%) rather than the best (+0.06%), though with a max favorable move of just +0.06% there was essentially nothing to capture. Dominant factor: Signal failure. A supposedly major catastrophe produced zero downside movement; the exit only converted a non-event into a small loss.
AMZN S4	+1.69%	-2.91%	Signal: Right — the short captured a -1.70% move, though the trade was underwater as much as -2.91% while open, so the path was volatile and the news premise (which can't be verified from this data) wasn't a clean catalyst. Timing: Fine — only -0.19% had occurred by entry, so the move was not already priced in. Exit: Excellent — the +1.69% best unrealized was essentially fully captured (+15.68 on 4 shares ≈ +1.70%), meaning the close-to-close exit landed at nearly the peak of what was available. Dominant factor: correct signal with a near-perfect exit; the main blemish is the large adverse excursion (-2.91%) mid-trade, which the fixed hold happened to survive rather than manage.

ticker

mfe

mae

reflection

AMZN S1

+0.06%

-0.17%

Signal: Wrong — or at least never validated. Despite the dramatic bearish catalyst, AMZN barely moved (best case only +0.06% in the trade's favor), which suggests the market didn't credit the story; the data here can't settle whether the news was false, but the predicted move never materialized.

Timing: Not the issue — entry was only ~0.2% below prior close, so almost nothing had been "used up" before entry.

Exit: Poor relative to what little was available — exited at roughly -0.09%, near the worst unrealized (-0.17%) rather than the best (+0.06%), though with a max favorable move of just +0.06% there was essentially nothing to capture.

Dominant factor: Signal failure. A supposedly major catastrophe produced zero downside movement; the exit only converted a non-event into a small loss.

AMZN S4

+1.69%

-2.91%

Signal: Right — the short captured a -1.70% move, though the trade was underwater as much as -2.91% while open, so the path was volatile and the news premise (which can't be verified from this data) wasn't a clean catalyst. Timing: Fine — only -0.19% had occurred by entry, so the move was not already priced in. Exit: Excellent — the +1.69% best unrealized was essentially fully captured (+15.68 on 4 shares ≈ +1.70%), meaning the close-to-close exit landed at nearly the peak of what was available.

Dominant factor: correct signal with a near-perfect exit; the main blemish is the large adverse excursion (-2.91%) mid-trade, which the fixed hold happened to survive rather than manage.

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.