🚨 Alert #1075 Tue Jul-28 19:41:44
Major hyperscalers including Amazon and Alphabet have raised their 2026 capital expenditure guidance to a combined $600-630 billion, primarily for AI infrastructure, driving gains in data center supply chain stocks.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AMZN | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.10% | -0.05% | 228.16 | 234.02 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -7.92% | -0.31% | 444.02 | 475.77 | |
| SMCI | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -5.37% | -0.69% | 27.27 | 28.69 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.63% | +0.16% | 325.28 | 335.89 | |
| peer MSFT | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.12% | -0.03% | 391.72 | 399.95 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.85% | +0.45% | 381.24 | 395.36 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.85% | +0.10% | 360.53 | 385.19 | |
| NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.27% | +0.07% | 193.21 | 198.53 | |
| META | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.11% | -0.09% | 587.04 | 600.38 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMZN (guidance: Major hyperscalers including Amazon and Alphabet have raised their 2026 capital expenditure guidance to a combined $600-630 billion, primarily for AI infrastructure, driving gains in data center supply chain stocks.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S1 short AMZN decision 4357] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.12% · Δ 30m -0.03% · px 397.35 (prev 389.10) → close -1.09% |
| S4 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long AMZN at close, exit next close (guidance: Major hyperscalers including Amazon and Alphabet have raised their 2026 capital expenditure guidance to a combined $600-630 billion, primarily for AI infrastructure, driving gains in data center supply chain stocks.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 85 long lost to mat 85 short (decision 4360) for S4 AMZN exiting 2026-07-29] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ▲ long | 4 | 231.26 | 230.83 | -1.72 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN S1 | +0.09% | -0.20% | Signal: Unconfirmed over the intended horizon — the bullish thesis (hyperscaler capex) is a multi-week theme, and price only fell -0.19% during a holding period that was cut short by netting against an opposing short signal, so this trade doesn't settle whether the direction call was right. Timing: Not a chasing problem — price was roughly flat at entry (-0.10% from prev close), so the move hadn't already happened. Exit: The dominant factor. The position was force-closed by the netting rule near its worst unrealized point (-0.19% exit vs. -0.20% worst, +0.09% best), meaning the exit captured essentially the maximum available loss in a tiny range — the -$1.72 reflects an administrative early close, not a thesis failure or a stop. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.