🚨 Alert #1067 Tue Jul-28 19:11:38
AMD announced a multi-billion-dollar partnership and up to $5 billion equity investment in Anthropic to deploy 2 gigawatts of MI450 GPUs, signaling a major shift toward AI inference demand.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -7.63% | -0.38% | 444.02 | 475.77 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | PRICED | -4.16% | -0.95% | 162.26 | 167.70 | |
| GOOGL | · unclear | PRICED | +2.47% | -0.27% | 325.28 | 335.89 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.28% | -0.31% | 381.24 | 395.36 | |
| MSFT | · unclear | PRICED | +2.15% | -0.47% | 391.72 | 399.95 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | FRESH | -0.95% | -0.23% | 360.53 | 385.19 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.20% | -0.33% | 193.21 | 198.53 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -7.63% · Δ 30m -0.38% · px 457.17 (prev 494.95) → close -0.27% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short NVDA (partnership: AMD announced a multi-billion-dollar partnership and up to $5 billion equity investment in Anthropic to deploy 2 gigawatts of MI450 GPUs, signaling a major shift toward AI inference demand.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S1 long NVDA decision 4277] |
| S4 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -7.63% · Δ 30m -0.38% · px 457.17 (prev 494.95) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | NVDA | ▼ short | 5 | 196.77 | 197.09 | -1.60 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S3 | -0.05% | -0.19% | Signal (dominant factor): The bearish call never worked — the trade was underwater the entire time it was open (best unrealized -0.05%, i.e., never positive), and NVDA drifted up from entry. Whether the thesis would have played out over a longer horizon is unknowable here, since the position was closed early by netting against an opposing long decision, not by the strategy's own exit logic. Timing: Price was only +0.20% from prior close at decision time, so there's no evidence the anticipated move had already occurred; the data doesn't settle whether the AMD news was already priced in. Exit: The -1.60 USD exit (~-0.16%) landed near the worst unrealized (-0.19%), but in such a narrow range (-0.05% to -0.19%) there was essentially nothing available to capture — the exit is a non-factor; the direction being wrong in-window is the story. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.