🚨 Alert #10 Wed Jul-15 16:10:02
Apple plans to spend over $30 billion under a multi-year chip supply deal with Broadcom running through 2031, covering FBAR filters and radio-frequency chips for wireless connectivity, with Broadcom investing $1.5 billion to expand its Fort Collins factory to produce at least 15 billion chips.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AVGO | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> buy AVGO (partnership: Apple plans to spend over $30 billion under a multi-year chip supply deal with Broadcom running through 2031, covering FBAR filters and radio-frequency chips for wireless connectivity, with Broadcom investing $1.5 billion to expand its Fort Collins factory to produce at least 15 billion chips.) |
| S2 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.92% · Δ 30m +0.00% · px 324.05 (prev 314.86) → close +0.96% |
| S3 | QCOM | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for QCOM → close +0.52% |
| S4 | AVGO | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: buy AVGO at close, exit next close (partnership: Apple plans to spend over $30 billion under a multi-year chip supply deal with Broadcom running through 2031, covering FBAR filters and radio-frequency chips for wireless connectivity, with Broadcom investing $1.5 billion to expand its Fort Collins factory to produce at least 15 billion chips.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AVGO | ▲ long | 2 | 390.13 | 394.87 | +9.48 | closed |
| S4 | AVGO | ▲ long | 2 | 394.88 | 375.16 | -39.44 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO S1 | +1.43% | -0.82% | The entry rationale correctly identified a bullish catalyst (a durable multi-year Apple supply deal), and the trade worked out—+1.22% realized, matching the modest "repricing" thesis rather than a blowout move, with only shallow drawdown (-0.82%) before recovering. The issue is the verdict/PnL mismatch is fine here, but the system left meaningful unrealized gain (+1.43% peak) on the table by exiting early—tighten the exit rule to trail stops off the peak (e.g., lock in 70% of max unrealized gain) rather than a fixed/time-based exit, so REPRICING trades capture more of the initial pop before mean-reverting. |
| AVGO S4 | +0.03% | -5.79% | The entry rationale bet on a positive news catalyst (Apple-Broadcom deal) producing overnight drift, but the trade lost nearly 5% intraday with almost zero favorable excursion (+0.03%) before closing down -5%—meaning the "good news" was likely already priced in at close, or was overwhelmed by broader market/sector selling that the strategy ignored. Concrete fix: add a volatility/gap filter that skips the trade (or cuts size) if the stock has already moved >X% on the news day itself, and require a hard stop-loss (e.g., -2%) rather than holding blindly to next close, since the -5.79% drawdown with zero upside showed no edge and no risk control. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.