🚨 Alert #990 Tue Jul-28 14:52:14
TSMC has begun production of NVIDIA's GB300 AI GPUs at its Arizona facility, marking a significant step in expanding US-based advanced chip manufacturing.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long NVDA (product: TSMC has begun production of NVIDIA's GB300 AI GPUs at its Arizona facility, marking a significant step in expanding US-based advanced chip manufacturing.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S1 short NVDA decision 3977] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close -0.57% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (product: TSMC has begun production of NVIDIA's GB300 AI GPUs at its Arizona facility, marking a significant step in expanding US-based advanced chip manufacturing.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 90 long (decision 4368) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-07-29] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ▲ long | 5 | 193.92 | 193.28 | -3.20 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S1 | +0.53% | -0.49% | Signal: Unresolved on the data here — the trade was force-closed early by netting against an opposing short (decision 3977), so whether the bullish repricing thesis would have played out over its intended horizon can't be judged; while open, price moved both ways (+0.53% / -0.49%) with no clear trend. Timing: Entry wasn't chasing — price was down 1.13% from prior close and falling into entry, so the anticipated move hadn't already occurred. Exit: This is the dominant factor. The exit (-0.33%) landed near the worst unrealized (-0.49%) despite +0.53% having been available, and it was triggered by signal-netting mechanics rather than the trade's own thesis failing — the strategy simultaneously generated opposing NVDA signals, and the resolution ate the trade. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.