🚨 Alert #7656 Fri Oct-16 15:30:11
TSLA vs Ford: Oil, tariffs, and a recall collide | FXStreet
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short TSLA (regulatory: TSLA vs Ford: Oil, tariffs, and a recall collide | FXStreet) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short TSLA at close, exit next close (regulatory: TSLA vs Ford: Oil, tariffs, and a recall collide | FXStreet) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted short, verdict now PRICED (-2.01% since close, 325m after decision), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ▼ short | 2 | 364.27 | 355.39 | +17.76 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA S1 | +4.05% | -0.26% | Signal: Right — the bearish call played out, with TSLA falling from the 364.27 fill to 355.39 and the position never more than -0.26% against it, so the direction was correct and the entry was essentially at the local high. Timing: Not stale — the fill was above the prior close (362.47) despite the -0.86% last-30m dip seen at decision time, so the move had not already happened; the short got in before the decline rather than chasing it. Exit: Partial capture — the +17.76 USD exit equals about +2.4% on 2 shares, versus +4.05% best unrealized, so roughly 40% of the available move was given back before closing. Dominant factor: a correct signal with a good entry, undercut only by an exit that left a meaningful slice of the move on the table; the journal doesn't say what triggered the exit, so whether that giveback was rule-driven or reversal-driven can't be determined from this data. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.