verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long META (regulatory: Meta Platforms Drug Sale Criminal Probe Halted by DOJ Officials) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, netted, outranked by S3 short META mat 86 (new mat 73)] → close -0.35%
Signal was wrong: the rationale bet on positive overnight drift from a favorable regulatory headline (DOJ probe halted), but META fell -4.13% from entry to next close (737.45 → 706.98), so direction was the dominant factor. Timing is unsettled by this data — the pre-entry move was tiny (+0.33% on the day, +0.27% last 30m), so the "move already happened" question doesn't apply; the loss came from something after entry that the journal doesn't show. The exit was mechanical (next close) and captured nearly the worst of the range: the trade saw at most +0.81% unrealized gain versus -4.68% at the low, and the -4.13% realized is close to the trough, so exit timing added little but also wasn't the cause — the -30.47 USD loss is a signal failure.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
