Signal: the long call was wrong at the chosen horizon — TSLA closed next day at 355.10, down 2.27% from the 363.36 entry, so the overnight-drift / merger-speculation thesis did not deliver a positive close-to-close move. Timing: the stock was already down 1.79% on the day at decision time, so the entry was not chasing a move that had already happened; nothing here suggests the rationale's catalyst had been priced in, but there is also no evidence the catalyst mattered at all. Exit: the position reached +5.16% unrealized while open (about +$37 on 2 shares) and the mechanical next-close exit gave back all of it to finish at -2.27% (-$16.52), near the -3.80% worst — the dominant factor is the fixed next-close exit discarding a large intraday gain on a signal that was ultimately wrong for the holding period.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
