🚨 Alert #7428 Wed Oct-14 14:40:26

Signal: wrong — the bullish AWS-backlog thesis didn't play out; price went from 258.72 to 253.93 (−1.85%), with a worst unrealized of −2.30% against only +0.27% best, so the trade was underwater almost the entire time. Timing: the data doesn't settle this — price was flat versus prev close (−0.01%) and the last 30m (−0.06%) at decision time, so the move hadn't visibly happened before entry, but we can't tell from these numbers whether the earnings news was already priced in earlier. Exit: fine relative to what was available — the exit at −1.85% sits between the +0.27% best and −2.30% worst, and there was essentially no upside to capture. Dominant factor is signal: the predicted direction was simply wrong.

Signal: Measured from the fill, direction was right (+0.47%), but measured from the rationale's reference point — the 258.58 prior close the "drift" was supposed to continue from — AMZN finished the window lower (255.09), so the earnings-drift thesis itself did not play out; the gain came from a fill 1.8% below the quoted reference, and the data doesn't explain that gap (overnight gap, stale decision timestamp, or slippage all fit). Timing: the decision-time context shows price flat vs prior close, so the move hadn't "already happened" in the bullish direction — if anything, the unexplained drop into the fill is the dominant factor here, not the earnings story. Exit: the scheduled next-close exit captured +0.47% of a +0.64% best, well off the −1.96% worst, so execution of the exit rule was fine; the open question is why entry printed ~470 bps-of-dollars below the reference close, which this record cannot settle.