overnight drift: long QCOM at close, exit next close (guidance: Qualcomm at $175: The Narrative Shift Sending Capital Out The Door) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted long, verdict now PRICED (-2.35% since close, 475m after decision), order not placed]
Signal was wrong and is the dominant factor. The trade was labeled bullish, but QCOM fell from entry (174.24 → 172.56, −0.96%), and the only article text in the journal — the headline "The Narrative Shift Sending Capital Out The Door" — reads as bearish framing, so the bullish direction call looks contradicted by its own source (the full article isn't here, so I can't confirm beyond the headline). On timing, the move had not pre-happened in the predicted direction: price at decision was roughly flat (−0.26% vs 176.86 prev close), yet the fill came at 174.24, already ~1.5% below prev close, meaning the stock was sliding against the thesis between decision and fill. On exit, the −0.96% result sits between the +0.77% best and −1.78% worst unrealized; the exit neither captured the brief upside nor rode to the trough, so it was a middling exit on a trade whose direction was simply wrong.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
