kingfisher — alert #7390

🚨 Alert #7390 Wed Oct-14 13:00:17

Microsoft suspended from applying for green cards for H-1B workers, JD Vance says

rocketnews.com · Wed Oct-14 11:24:25 published · Wed Oct-14 13:00:17 alerted · alerted 1h 35m after publish · read at rocketnews.com ↗ · regulatory · mat 71

Microsoft suspended from applying for green cards for H-1B workers, JD Vance says

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi	intraday px
primary MSFT	▼ bearish	FRESH	+0.43%	-0.23%	530.32	547.16

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	MSFT	● enter	▼ short	verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short MSFT (regulatory: Microsoft suspended from applying for green cards for H-1B workers, JD Vance says)
S2	-	○ skip	—	no counterparty in universe
S3	-	○ skip	—	no peer in universe
S4	MSFT	○ skip	—	overnight drift: short MSFT at close, exit next close (regulatory: Microsoft suspended from applying for green cards for H-1B workers, JD Vance says) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 71 short lost to mat 79 long (decision 29836) for S4 MSFT exiting 2026-10-15]

📈 Trades

strategy	ticker	side	qty	entry	exit	P&L $	status
S1	MSFT	▼ short	1	543.23	533.33	+9.90	closed

Retrospectives

ticker	mfe	mae	reflection
MSFT S1	+1.93%	-0.24%	Signal: correct — the bearish call played out, with MSFT falling 1.82% from entry. Timing: fine — at decision time the stock was still up 0.43% on the day and the entry (543.23) sat just under the prior close, so the drop had not yet occurred; the data here can't say whether the news itself caused the move. Exit: strong — the +9.90 (+1.82%) captured almost all of the +1.93% best unrealized against only -0.24% worst, so the dominant factor is simply a correct signal with a well-captured exit, not luck or sloppiness on the close.

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.