verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMZN (m&a: Amazon in Talks to Buy Decart AI for Around $7B) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S2 long AMZN exiting 2026-10-13] → close -0.23%
Signal: wrong — the rationale predicted upward overnight drift on the M&A headline, but AMZN closed the next session at 253.86, −1.8% from the 258.48 entry, so the predicted direction did not materialize. Timing: the data doesn't settle it — price was essentially flat at decision time (−0.14% from prev close, +0.01% last 30m), so the move hadn't already happened, but whether the headline was already priced in before this snapshot can't be determined from what's here. Exit: the fixed next-close exit gave back −1.79% against a best unrealized of +0.98% and worst of −2.21%, so it neither captured the brief upside nor avoided most of the drawdown; the dominant factor is a failed directional signal — a $7B acquisition rumor for a ~$2T+ company was not a catalyst for drift, and the acquirer traded down.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
