Signal: Direction was nominally right (price rose +0.37% from entry), but the move was tiny and symmetric with the drawdown (−0.35%), so this looks like noise rather than a confirmed thesis — and the rationale is a generic cross-sector M&A roundup headline with no NVDA-specific catalyst evident in the data here, so the data doesn't establish that the "bullish" read was actually tied to anything about NVDA. Timing: NVDA was already +0.42% on the day at decision time and the fill at 227.28 sits right at that level, so entry caught the move mid-drift rather than early; whether a larger move preceded the article is not settled by this data. Exit: Near-perfect — +$3.32 (+0.365%) against a best unrealized of +0.37% captured essentially everything available. The dominant factor is a weak, non-specific signal that produced a coin-flip-sized move; the exit was good, but there was little to capture.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
