Signal: Direction was right — AMD rose ~1.8% after entry — but the rationale is weak on its face: the cited article (crude oil, Citigroup earnings, Bumble) says nothing about AMD, so the data here doesn't establish a real causal link; the correct call looks coincidental rather than earned. Timing: Not a late entry — the +1.33% 30-minute pop had mostly faded (price -0.10% vs. prev close, fill at 593.4 below the 594.24 close), and the full move came after entry. Exit: Essentially perfect — the +10.55 (+1.78%) P&L equals the best unrealized of +1.78%, with worst only -0.07%, so nothing available was left on the table. The dominant factor is a favorable move captured in full by the exit, on a thesis whose stated catalyst is unrelated to the ticker.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
