verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short NVDA (regulatory: Why Is Super Micro Computer Stock Falling on Tuesday?) [closed early: netted out by outranking S2 long NVDA decision 29478]
Signal: wrong — the bearish call on NVDA (derived from a Super Micro headline, not an NVDA-specific one) didn't play out; the stock rose from 224.18 to 227.29, back above the prior close, and the best unrealized gain while open was only +0.44% versus a -1.48% worst drawdown. Timing: the stock was already down -1.01% from the prior close at decision time with the last 30m flat, so the entry chased a small move that had already occurred, though the data here can't establish whether a further decline was ever likely. Exit: the trade was closed early because an outranking S2 long NVDA decision netted it out, so the exit was mechanical rather than signal-driven; the realized loss (~-1.39%) sits near the worst unrealized (-1.48%), meaning little of the brief +0.44% was captured, but the dominant factor is simply a wrong-direction signal built on a cross-ticker headline.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
