verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMZN (m&a: Amazon in Advanced Talks to Acquire Decart for $7B | BTCWires) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long AMZN exiting 2026-10-12] → close -0.76%
Signal: Wrong on a close-to-close basis — the acquirer-side M&A headline did not produce a sustained positive drift; AMZN finished the holding window down 0.39% from entry (259.46 → 258.44). Timing: The move had not already happened — the stock was down 0.40% at decision time and the fill (259.46) was lower still, roughly 1.1% below the prior close of 262.43, so entry was not chasing (the gap between decision-time price and fill isn't explained by the data here). Exit: The fixed next-close exit left the available +1.27% on the table and landed near the middle of the +1.27% / -0.79% range; the up-move existed only transiently, so the dominant factor is signal — the catalyst did not carry through the full window, and the mechanical exit had no mechanism to capture the intraday high.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
