verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (earnings: Nvidia Stock Approaches All-Time High on $96bn Quarter) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S2 long NVDA exiting 2026-10-09] → close -0.28%
Signal was wrong: the rationale predicted post-earnings drift higher, but NVDA fell from 229.64 to 226.59 (−1.33%), and the best unrealized gain was only +0.30% versus a worst of −2.02%, so there was never a meaningful upside move to capture. Timing: the pre-entry context (−0.09% from prev close, −0.25% last 30m, fill slightly below prev close) shows no run-up before entry, so the move had not "already happened" — the headline's "approaches all-time high" refers to earlier price action not visible in this data, and whether the news was already priced in can't be settled from what's here. Exit: the mechanical next-close exit landed at −1.33%, well off the +0.30% best but also better than the −2.02% worst, so execution is roughly neutral; the dominant factor is simply that the direction call on this overnight drift was wrong.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
