verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long MSFT (earnings: Microsoft (MSFT) Posted 43% Azure Growth, Yet Trades Below Its Own Five-Year P/E. A Real Discount?)
overnight drift: long MSFT at close, exit next close (earnings: Microsoft (MSFT) Posted 43% Azure Growth, Yet Trades Below Its Own Five-Year P/E. A Real Discount?) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 71 long lost to mat 74 short (decision 28632) for S4 MSFT exiting 2026-10-12]
Signal: Right — the bullish call played out, with MSFT rising 1.35% from entry (527.88 → 534.99) and the worst unrealized drawdown only -0.13%, so the long was essentially never underwater. Timing: Fine — the stock was already +1.01% off the prior close at decision time, but that pre-entry move was small relative to the +1.72% peak that followed, so the trade was not chasing an exhausted move (though the journal doesn't give the hold duration or the article's publication time, so whether the catalyst was stale news is not settled here). Exit: Good — +7.11 USD captured ~78% of the +1.72% best unrealized, leaving only ~$2 on the table. Dominant factor: a correct directional signal with clean follow-through; this is a straightforward win with no meaningful flaw in timing or exit.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
