🚨 Alert #714 Fri Jul-24 15:41:34
Iran's IRGC claims to have destroyed an Amazon data center in Bahrain, alleging it supported US military intelligence operations.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell AMZN (other: Iran's IRGC claims to have destroyed an Amazon data center in Bahrain, alleging it supported US military intelligence operations.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | AMZN | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: sell AMZN at close, exit next close (other: Iran's IRGC claims to have destroyed an Amazon data center in Bahrain, alleging it supported US military intelligence operations.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ▼ short | 4 | 232.00 | 232.30 | -1.20 | closed |
| S4 | AMZN | ▼ short | 4 | 232.28 | 231.41 | +3.48 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN S1 | +0.25% | -0.97% | The entry treated an unverified IRGC propaganda claim as "FRESH" market-moving news, but the outcome (AMZN barely moved, -1.20 USD, max adverse only -0.97%) shows the market correctly ignored it — a single data center, even if real, is immaterial to a company of Amazon's scale. The rationale conflated headline dramatics with financial materiality. Concrete fix: add a materiality/corroboration gate to the verdict logic — geopolitical or adversarial-source claims (state media, militant groups) should be downgraded from FRESH to UNVERIFIED unless confirmed by a second independent source or accompanied by an actual price/volume reaction within the first N minutes. |
| AMZN S4 | +0.52% | -1.60% | Signal: correct — price fell after entry and the short profited (+0.37%). Timing: partly late — AMZN was already down 0.67% from the prior close before entry, so some of the anticipated drift occurred pre-fill, though the data doesn't show how much more of the news-driven move had already been priced in. Exit: good capture — the +0.37% realized was most of the +0.52% best unrealized, but the dominant fact is the risk profile: the position sat through a -1.60% adverse excursion to collect a small gain, so the win was thin relative to the drawdown endured. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.