verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short MSFT (regulatory: Vance Suspends Microsoft's PERM Filings After a Probe Tied 6,000 Layoffs to 6,300 H-1B Hires) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 short MSFT exiting 2026-10-08] → close -0.09%
overnight drift: short MSFT at close, exit next close (regulatory: Vance Suspends Microsoft's PERM Filings After a Probe Tied 6,000 Layoffs to 6,300 H-1B Hires)
Signal was wrong — this is the dominant factor. MSFT didn't drift lower overnight; it rose from 522.53 to 535.02 (+2.4%), and the best unrealized of -0.02% means the short was never in profit for even a moment. On timing, the data shows the stock was already down 1.24% from the prior close at decision time, so whatever downward reaction the regulatory headline produced was largely priced in by the close entry — but whether a fresh overnight drop was ever plausible can't be settled here, since no post-entry drop occurred. The exit itself was fine: the mechanical next-close exit at -2.39% landed close to the worst unrealized (-2.76%), and with nothing favorable to capture there was no better exit available; the loss is entirely a direction call that failed.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
