verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short META (earnings: Why AI Infrastructure Is Turning Meta and Amazon into Cash-Flow Sinks - AOL) [skipped: duplicate theme — already queued S2 short META exiting 2026-10-08] → close -0.25%
Signal: Direction was right — META closed lower (720.58 → 718.94, +0.23% on the short), though the move was small and the data doesn't show whether the AOL "cash-flow sink" angle drove it or it was just noise. Timing: Nothing had been given away by entry — price was only +0.15% from prev close at decision time (and fill came in slightly below prev close), so the short wasn't chasing a drop that had already happened. Exit: The fixed next-close exit captured about 40% of the +0.59% best unrealized while sitting through a -1.02% adverse swing that was larger than the eventual gain; the dominant factor is that this was a marginal, low-conviction win where the adverse excursion outweighed the favorable one and the mechanical exit simply happened to land on the right side of a choppy day.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
