Signal: The bearish call was directionally available — META traded down as much as 1.02% below entry while the short was open — though whether that dip had anything to do with a $500M Manus funding round (a thin catalyst for a META short) can't be settled from this data. Timing: Entry wasn't late; the stock was only -0.46% from prior close and had ticked up +0.27% in the last 30m, so the move hadn't already happened. Exit (dominant factor): The trade gave back the entire +1.02% unrealized gain and closed at -0.18% (-1.26 USD), well off the best point but short of the -0.71% worst — the exit captured none of the move that was there; the journal doesn't say what triggered the close, so why it let the gain evaporate isn't determinable here.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
