Signal: The bullish call was essentially wrong-to-null — NVDA chopped in a ±0.5% band and closed the position 0.08% below entry, with no sustained move in either direction; notably, the cited article headline concerns Constellation Brands, SpaceX, and Neogen, not NVDA, so the rationale gives no actual evidence for an NVDA-specific catalyst. Timing: the data here doesn't settle it — price was already down 0.89% from prior close with a flat last 30 minutes, but with no real directional move afterward there was nothing to be early or late to. Exit: the -0.72 USD loss sits roughly midway between the +0.45% best and -0.63% worst unrealized, so the exit neither captured the small available upside nor took the worst drawdown; the dominant factor is a weak signal built on an article that doesn't mention the traded ticker.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
