verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short META (regulatory: New Mexico Wants Meta to Pay Up to $40 Billion. A Judge Rules This Month - AOL) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 short META exiting 2026-10-06] → close -0.20%
Signal: right. META fell ~2.4% from short entry (739.26) to the next close (721.56), so the predicted direction held. Timing: not pre-empted — at decision time the stock was essentially flat on the day (-0.06% vs. prev close), so the move had not already happened; the fill at 739.26 was ~0.3% below the 741.37 prior close, a small giveaway against the short but not material. Exit: captured roughly half of what was available — +2.39% realized versus +4.70% best unrealized, after also sitting through a -4.73% adverse excursion; the fixed next-close exit, not any read on the price, determined the harvest. The data doesn't show when the best/worst points occurred, so whether the exit was fading from the peak or recovering from the trough can't be settled here. Dominant factor: a correct directional call on a very volatile session (±4.7% swings), with the mechanical close-to-close exit leaving about half the favorable move on the table.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
