🚨 Alert #6618 Tue Oct-06 14:40:23
New Mexico Wants Meta to Pay Up to $40 Billion. A Judge Rules This Month
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short META (regulatory: New Mexico Wants Meta to Pay Up to $40 Billion. A Judge Rules This Month) [closed early: netted out by outranking S2 long META decision 26966] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | META | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short META at close, exit next close (regulatory: New Mexico Wants Meta to Pay Up to $40 Billion. A Judge Rules This Month) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 72 short lost to mat 75 short (decision 26608) for S4 META exiting 2026-10-07] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ▼ short | 1 | 745.21 | 743.10 | +2.11 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| META S1 | +1.05% | +0.09% | Signal: correct — the short went into profit immediately and never traded underwater (worst unrealized was still +0.09%), so the bearish call on META was right over the holding window, though whether the pending New Mexico ruling actually drove the move isn't established by this data (the article describes a decision due "this month," not a realized event). Timing: fine — the stock was slightly up (+0.50% vs prev close) at decision time and filled near that level, so the downside move came after entry rather than before it. Exit (dominant factor): the trade was closed by netting against an outranking long decision, not by any price logic, and that mechanical exit banked +0.28% out of a +1.05% best unrealized — roughly a quarter of what was available. The P&L was positive but the exit, not the thesis, determined the size of it. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.