🚨 Alert #6569 Tue Oct-06 13:00:29
Nvidia Heads for $6 Trillion Value With Chipmaker Back at Record
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long NVDA (guidance: Nvidia Heads for $6 Trillion Value With Chipmaker Back at Record) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (guidance: Nvidia Heads for $6 Trillion Value With Chipmaker Back at Record) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 77 long lost to mat 90 long (decision 26332) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-10-07] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ▲ long | 4 | 242.65 | 239.29 | -13.44 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S1 | +0.12% | -1.49% | Signal: Wrong over the holding period — NVDA never got more than +0.12% above the 242.65 fill and finished -1.38% below it, so the bullish "repricing" call didn't play out while the trade was open. Timing: The headline ("back at record") described a move that had already happened; the stock was +1.20% off prev close at decision and the fill at 242.65 was another ~0.5% higher (+1.69% vs 238.62), so the trade bought the top of an already-completed rally. Exit: There was essentially nothing to capture — best unrealized was +0.12% — and the exit at -1.38% sits near the worst unrealized of -1.49%, so the exit roughly rode the full drawdown rather than cutting early; the data doesn't say what triggered the exit or how long the trade was open. The dominant factor is timing-driven signal failure: entering long on a stale "at record high" news item after the move was already priced in, with the fill adding further slippage against the trade. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.