overnight drift: long MSFT at close, exit next close (earnings: The Core Hyperscaler Battle: First-Mover Software Integration Vs. Raw Infrastructure Scale - AOL)
Signal: correct — the overnight-drift long call was right; MSFT rose from 525.05 to 529.68 (+0.88%) and the worst unrealized drawdown was only -0.43%, so the position was barely stressed. Timing: entry came after the stock had already run +1.60% that day (fill 525.05 vs. prev close 517.53), so the strategy bought into an extended day, but the next session still delivered more upside, so the pre-entry move didn't negate the edge; whether the earnings/hyperscaler article actually drove any of this isn't determinable from the data here. Exit: the dominant factor — the fixed next-close exit captured +0.88% against a +1.99% best unrealized, i.e., less than half the peak move was realized (roughly 1.1% / ~$5.80 left on the table by the mechanical timing).
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
