overnight drift: long TSLA at close, exit next close (earnings: Tesla Beats Q3 Delivery Estimates by Almost 30,000 Vehicles. Is Profit Keeping Up?) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 80 long lost to mat 81 long (decision 26040) for S4 TSLA exiting 2026-10-06]
Signal was right and is the dominant factor: the bullish call on the delivery beat played out, with TSLA rising from 367.05 to 378.48 (+3.1%) and never going meaningfully against the position (worst unrealized only -0.43%). Timing was good: at decision time the stock was -0.80% from the prior close with no run-up in the last 30 minutes, so the move had not already happened — entry was below the prior close, essentially before the reaction. Exit captured most of what was available: +3.1% realized versus +3.9% best unrealized (~80% of the peak), leaving roughly $5–6 on the table across 2 shares, which is minor relative to the +$22.86 result; the data doesn't show whether the exit was a target, trailing stop, or time-based close.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
