Signal was right: NVDA went up after a bullish long, and the trade exited +1.03% (+9.76 USD) with the worst drawdown only -0.29%. Timing is partly questionable — the decision price was ~235.05 (+0.47% vs prev close 233.95) but the fill was 236.37, so about 0.56% of the move occurred between decision and fill, before the position was on; whether the broader move had "already happened" isn't settled by this data since there's no post-exit price. Exit captured roughly two-thirds of the +1.56% peak unrealized, which is the dominant factor here — a reasonable capture, not a leak — while the stated rationale (a Firmus IPO article) is only tangentially about NVDA, so the correct direction can't be clearly credited to the news signal itself.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
