Signal: Right — the overnight-drift long on the buyback headline played out, with price rising from 234.07 to 238.83 (+2.03%) and never meaningfully going against the position (worst unrealized only −0.12%). Timing: Entry came after the news-driven spike was already underway (+1.72% from prev close at decision time, article describing all-time highs), so part of the initial reaction was missed, but the continuation into the next close was still larger than the pre-entry move, so the move was not already exhausted. Exit: The fixed next-close exit captured +2.03% of a +2.55% best unrealized — about 80% of what was available — making this a clean win where the correct directional call was the dominant factor and the mechanical exit left only a modest amount on the table.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
