🚨 Alert #6321 Fri Oct-02 13:50:09
New Mexico Seeks up to $40 Billion From Meta | SEE News
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short META (regulatory: New Mexico Seeks up to $40 Billion From Meta | SEE News) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | META | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short META at close, exit next close (regulatory: New Mexico Seeks up to $40 Billion From Meta | SEE News) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 75 short lost to mat 86 short (decision 25492) for S4 META exiting 2026-10-05] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ▼ short | 1 | 735.46 | 728.08 | +7.38 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| META S1 | +1.21% | -0.64% | Signal: Right. The bearish regulatory call played out — META fell from 735.46 to 728.08 (~1.0%) while the short was open. Timing: Not a problem. At decision time META was up 0.91% from prev close (and the fill at 735.46 was even higher than the ~732 implied at decision), so the short was entered into strength before any downside had occurred — the predicted move had not already happened. Whether the ~3-point adverse slippage between decision price and fill was a delay or just continued upward drift isn't settled by this data. Exit: Good. The +7.38 (~+1.0%) captured roughly 83% of the +1.21% best unrealized, and the worst drawdown was only -0.64%, so the exit left little on the table. Dominant factor: a correct directional signal on a mild move, with the exit converting most of it. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.