🚨 Alert #6302 Thu Oct-01 19:50:33
AMD, Meta Power GAMR's Gaming Index as Capcom Joins
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMD (m&a: AMD, Meta Power GAMR's Gaming Index as Capcom Joins) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S2 long AMD exiting 2026-10-01] → close -0.03% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | META | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long META (m&a: AMD, Meta Power GAMR's Gaming Index as Capcom Joins) |
| S4 | AMD | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long AMD at close, exit next close (m&a: AMD, Meta Power GAMR's Gaming Index as Capcom Joins) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 86 long lost to mat 90 long (decision 25128) for S4 AMD exiting 2026-10-02] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | META | ▲ long | 1 | 727.20 | 725.23 | -1.97 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| META S3 | +0.33% | -0.26% | Signal was weak-to-wrong: a "Capcom joins a gaming index" story is a thin bullish catalyst for META, and the stock ended below the 727.2 entry (exit 725.23, −0.27%), so the predicted direction did not hold over the trade's life. Timing: the pre-entry context (+0.18% from prev close, −0.21% last 30m) shows essentially no move had occurred, so this was not a chased entry — though the fill at 727.2 was ~0.19% above the quoted context, meaning some drift happened between decision and fill. Exit: the trade touched +0.33% and −0.26% while open and closed at roughly the worst unrealized, so the exit captured none of the available upside; the data here doesn't show whether that was a stop, a time exit, or a reversal, so the exit mechanism itself can't be judged. Dominant factor: a flimsy signal — the catalyst had no clear link to META's price, and the small range (+0.33%/−0.26%) suggests the "news" never moved the stock at all. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.