verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long MSFT (earnings: Microsoft posts best quarter in decades as AI focus strengthens) [skipped: duplicate theme — already queued S1 long MSFT exiting 2026-10-01] → close -1.16%
Signal: Right — MSFT closed higher the next day (+0.77%), so the post-earnings overnight-drift call was directionally correct. Timing: Not pre-empted; although the stock was +1.14% on the day at decision time, the fill at 512.78 was actually just below the prior close (513.15), so the entry didn't pay up for an already-made move. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit took +0.77% out of a +1.77% peak, but the dominant fact is the −6.32% worst unrealized drawdown — the position was down roughly eight times its final gain at some point and the close-to-close rule simply rode through it; the data doesn't show whether the peak came before or after the trough, so whether a better exit was realistically catchable can't be settled here.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
