🚨 Alert #6137 Thu Oct-01 13:00:24
Amazon Raised Its 2026 Capex Guide to $220 Billion. Here's What Drove the Increase
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | primary short contradicts tape: AMZN +1.03% since prev close → close -1.53% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | AMZN | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short AMZN at close, exit next close (guidance: Amazon Raised Its 2026 Capex Guide to $220 Billion. Here's What Drove the Increase) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | AMZN | ▼ short | 4 | 247.98 | 251.53 | -14.20 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN S4 | +1.81% | -2.15% | Signal: wrong. The thesis was that the capex-guidance headline would push AMZN lower overnight, but the stock rose from the 247.98 fill to 251.53 at next close (+1.43% against the short), ending above the 249.24 prior close. Timing: the data is contradictory and doesn't settle it. At decision time the stock was ~251.8 (+1.03% from prev close), yet the fill printed at 247.98 — about 1.5% lower — so either the hoped-for drop occurred between decision and fill (meaning the short was entered after the move it was betting on) or something is off in the fill record; the journal doesn't say which. Exit: left the whole favorable move on the table. Best unrealized was +1.81% (~243.5) versus the realized -1.43%; the fixed next-close exit captured none of the intraday dip and closed near the worst (-2.15%). The dominant factor is the wrong direction over the holding window — the price did dip, but the strategy's close-to-close bet landed on the rebound. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.