🚨 Alert #5911 Tue Sep-29 16:10:34
Tesla's Q3 deliveries loom large as the Roadster slips again
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short TSLA (earnings: Tesla's Q3 deliveries loom large as the Roadster slips again) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 short TSLA exiting 2026-09-29] → close -0.36% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSLA | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short TSLA at close, exit next close (earnings: Tesla's Q3 deliveries loom large as the Roadster slips again) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | TSLA | ▼ short | 2 | 352.83 | 354.11 | -2.56 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA S4 | +1.84% | -0.61% | Signal: partly right, then wrong at the horizon that mattered. TSLA did fall after the short entry—unrealized reached +1.84% (~346) while open—but by the scheduled next-close exit it had reversed to 354.11, +0.36% above entry, so the close-to-close direction the rationale actually bet on was wrong. Timing: the fill at 352.83 was already ~1.3% below the prior close (decision context showed -0.95%), so some of the "deliveries loom" drift had happened before entry; but since the stock fell a further ~1.8% afterward, the data doesn't show the move was exhausted at entry—it shows it was intact and then fully retraced. Exit is the dominant factor: the mechanical next-close exit gave back the entire +1.84% favorable excursion and booked -0.36% (-2.56 USD), landing near the -0.61% worst unrealized. The available move was more than five times the realized loss in the other direction; the time-based exit captured none of it. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.