Signal: the bullish call was directionally right — TSM went from 456.18 to 457.47 (+0.28%) and never fell more than 0.20% against the position. Timing: the stock had already run +0.68% from prior close and +1.22% in the prior 30 minutes before the decision, so a good chunk of the move preceded entry, and the underlying thesis (a Taiwan nuclear restart driving a same-day TSM repricing) is a loose, second-order link that the data here can't confirm was actually the driver. Exit: the trade captured +0.28% of a +0.70% best unrealized — about 40% of what was available — so the dominant factor is the late entry into an already-extended move, which left only a small residual to harvest and made the modest give-back at exit proportionally significant.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
