🚨 Alert #5614 Mon Sep-28 13:50:31
Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Climbs on Historic $150B Share Repurchase Authorization
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | primary long move already absorbed: NVDA +1.82% since prev close → close -0.32% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMD (other: Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Climbs on Historic $150B Share Repurchase Authorization) |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (other: Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Climbs on Historic $150B Share Repurchase Authorization) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 79 long lost to mat 87 long (decision 22296) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-09-29] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | AMD | ▲ long | 1 | 628.28 | 607.28 | -21.00 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMD S3 | -0.36% | -5.06% | Signal was wrong and is the dominant factor. The rationale went long AMD on a headline about Nvidia's buyback — a sympathy read, not an AMD catalyst — and AMD never traded above entry: best unrealized was -0.36%, so the bullish call had no support at any point while open. Timing isn't the issue as framed: AMD was down -0.89% on the day with only +0.17% over the prior 30m, so no move had "already happened" to chase — the direction was simply wrong for this ticker. Exit landed at -3.34% (-21.00 USD), between the best (-0.36%) and worst (-5.06%) unrealized — it didn't hold to the bottom, but nothing was available to capture on the long side. Whether NVDA itself rose on the article can't be determined from this data, so whether the "FRESH" verdict was valid for the underlying name is unsettled here; what's settled is that it didn't transfer to AMD. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.