🚨 Alert #559 Thu Jul-23 13:10:55
AMD and Intel have signed year-long agreements to supply CPUs to Chinese AI data center firms amid a 40% price surge driven by agentic AI demand.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy AMD (partnership: AMD and Intel have signed year-long agreements to supply CPUs to Chinese AI data center firms amid a 40% price surge driven by agentic AI demand.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close -0.98% |
| S4 | AMD | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy AMD at close, exit next close (partnership: AMD and Intel have signed year-long agreements to supply CPUs to Chinese AI data center firms amid a 40% price surge driven by agentic AI demand.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 buy lost to mat 75 buy (decision 2296) for S4 AMD exiting 2026-07-24] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ▲ long | 1 | 540.94 | 538.74 | -2.20 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMD S1 | +1.71% | -2.74% | Entry vs. outcome: The rationale tagged the catalyst as FRESH, but the story itself admits a 40% price surge had already occurred—meaning the news was largely priced in and you bought near a local top. The trade confirmed this: max upside was only +1.71% while drawdown hit -2.74%, and it closed at a small loss with no follow-through. Improvement: Add a priced-in filter to the verdict logic: downgrade FRESH to STALE (or skip entirely) when the ticker is already up more than ~15-20% over the trailing month or when the headline itself references an existing price surge. Alternatively, require FRESH-verdict entries to wait for a pullback (e.g., 1-2% below signal price) rather than buying at market on momentum that's already exhausted. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.