overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (earnings: Nvidia increases share buyback approval by $150B as AI revenue machine keeps printing cash)
Signal: Direction was right for most of the hold — the position reached +1.86% unrealized — but the close-to-close result was negative (228.49 → 227.31, −0.52%), so as measured by the strategy's own window the call failed. Timing: The stock was already +1.22% on the day at decision and the fill came in at +1.52% above prev close (228.49 vs. an implied ~227.82 decision price), so part of the buyback reaction was in the price before entry and the fill added ~0.3% of slippage on top; whether the news itself broke before the decision isn't stated here. Exit (dominant factor): The fixed next-close exit gave back the entire +1.86% peak and finished at −0.52%, which is actually below the recorded worst unrealized of −0.35% — a data inconsistency (likely the worst-unrealized series excludes the final fill or the exit slipped), but either way the P&L of −$4.72 captured none of what was available.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
