🚨 Alert #5485 Fri Sep-25 13:23:40
Super Micro Computer began shipping NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks and reaffirmed strong AI demand with a $60 billion order book supporting its fiscal 2027 outlook.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary SMCI | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.30% | -0.31% | 41.99 | 43.60 | |
| peer AMD | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.81% | -0.10% | 626.27 | 641.99 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.38% | -0.05% | 349.64 | 356.00 | |
| TSM | · unclear | FRESH | +0.99% | -0.08% | 449.25 | 456.33 | |
| counterparty NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.61% | -0.08% | 223.35 | 226.53 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | SMCI | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long SMCI (product: Super Micro Computer began shipping NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks and reaffirmed strong AI demand with a $60 billion order book supporting its fiscal 2027 outlook.) |
| S2 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -0.25% |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close -1.47% |
| S4 | SMCI | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long SMCI at close, exit next close (product: Super Micro Computer began shipping NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks and reaffirmed strong AI demand with a $60 billion order book supporting its fiscal 2027 outlook.) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted long, verdict now PRICED (+4.01% since close, 451m after decision), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | SMCI | ▲ long | 23 | 42.16 | 43.20 | +23.92 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMCI S1 | +3.61% | -0.24% | Signal: right. The bullish call worked — SMCI rose ~2.5% from entry with minimal adverse excursion (worst -0.24%), so the direction was clean. Timing: acceptable. The stock was only +1.3% off prev close at decision time and drifting slightly down in the last 30m, so entry wasn't chasing an already-completed move — the bulk of the gain came after entry. Exit: solid but not full capture. The +$23.92 exit (+2.47%) captured roughly two-thirds of the +3.61% peak unrealized; the data doesn't show whether the peak came before or after exit, so I can't say if the exit gave back gains or simply left a later high uncollected. Dominant factor: a correct signal with near-zero drawdown did the work here. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.