verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMD (analyst: Analysts project AMD shares could reach $900 by 2027 driven by strong AI chip demand and upward earnings revisions.)
overnight drift: long AMD at close, exit next close (analyst: Analysts project AMD shares could reach $900 by 2027 driven by strong AI chip demand and upward earnings revisions.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 long (decision 21364) for S4 AMD exiting 2026-09-24]
Signal (dominant factor): The bullish call was wrong over the holding period — the position was essentially never profitable (best unrealized just -0.06%), so the predicted upmove simply didn't occur. Timing: Price was only down 0.90% from prior close at decision, and the rationale cites a multi-year analyst target rather than a discrete news move, so the data here doesn't establish that a move had "already happened" — there was just no move to catch. Exit: The -1.21% realized loss sits between the best (-0.06%) and worst (-2.05%) unrealized, so the exit was mid-range on a trade that offered no upside to capture; the loss stems from the signal, not exit execution.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
