🚨 Alert #5209 Tue Sep-22 16:50:22
Nvidia reported Q2 fiscal 2027 revenue of $96.22 billion, beating estimates by 4.51%, and guided Q3 revenue to $108 billion while highlighting strong margins and cash flow.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (earnings: Nvidia reported Q2 fiscal 2027 revenue of $96.22 billion, beating estimates by 4.51%, and guided Q3 revenue to $108 billion while highlighting strong margins and cash flow.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, conflict-hold — mat 85 ties incumbent S1 short NVDA, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close +0.13% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close +1.14% |
| S4 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (earnings: Nvidia reported Q2 fiscal 2027 revenue of $96.22 billion, beating estimates by 4.51%, and guided Q3 revenue to $108 billion while highlighting strong margins and cash flow.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | NVDA | ▲ long | 4 | 228.73 | 225.15 | -14.32 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S4 | +0.29% | -2.05% | Signal (dominant factor): wrong. The post-earnings drift thesis failed — despite the beat, NVDA fell ~1.57% from entry to exit; the predicted direction simply didn't materialize. Timing: Entry at 228.73 was +0.59% above prior close, so a small part of any pop was already paid for at the fill, but that ~0.6% premium is minor compared to the directional loss. Exit: The best unrealized was only +0.29%, so there was essentially no profit ever available; the -1.57% realized exit sits between the best and worst (-2.05%), meaning the mechanical close-to-close exit gave back nothing meaningful and avoided the trough — the loss was driven by the bad signal, not exit execution. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.