🚨 Alert #4883 Thu Sep-17 13:40:07
Nebius Group reported strong Q2 2026 revenue growth and raised power capacity guidance, backed by major contracts with Meta and Microsoft and an equity investment from Nvidia.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long META (other: Nebius Group reported strong Q2 2026 revenue growth and raised power capacity guidance, backed by major contracts with Meta and Microsoft and an equity investment from Nvidia.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | META | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long META at close, exit next close (other: Nebius Group reported strong Q2 2026 revenue growth and raised power capacity guidance, backed by major contracts with Meta and Microsoft and an equity investment from Nvidia.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 75 long (decision 19592) for S4 META exiting 2026-09-18] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ▲ long | 1 | 679.68 | 682.55 | +2.87 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| META S1 | +0.49% | -1.64% | Signal: Direction was right but marginally — META drifted up only +0.42% from entry, and the rationale itself is thin: the news is about Nebius, with META only a customer, so whether this was a genuine META catalyst can't be confirmed from the data here. Timing: The stock was already +1.26% off the prior close at decision time, so a chunk of the move preceded entry, though entry filled slightly below that level. Exit: The exit was near-optimal — +0.42% captured against a best unrealized of +0.49%, while dodging the -1.64% drawdown. Dominant factor: A weak, second-hand signal that left little edge to capture; the exit did its job well, but there was barely anything on the table. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.