🚨 Alert #4871 Thu Sep-17 13:00:42
Tesla reported record Q2 deliveries and announced major capex investments for Robotaxi and Optimus production with support from partners including TSMC.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | primary long move already absorbed: TSLA +1.77% since prev close → close +0.70% |
| S2 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long TSM (earnings: Tesla reported record Q2 deliveries and announced major capex investments for Robotaxi and Optimus production with support from partners including TSMC.) |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long TSLA at close, exit next close (earnings: Tesla reported record Q2 deliveries and announced major capex investments for Robotaxi and Optimus production with support from partners including TSMC.) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted long, verdict now PRICED (+2.49% since close, 474m after decision), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S2 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 424.80 | 429.22 | +8.84 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S2 | +1.28% | -0.24% | Signal: Right — the stock rose another ~1% after entry, though the rationale is really a Tesla story with TSMC as a tangential partner, so whether the thesis caused the move can't be settled from this data. Timing: Partly late — the stock was already +1.34% off the prior close at decision time (entry filled at +1.6%), so a meaningful chunk of the repricing preceded entry, but there was still room left. Exit: Good — the +1.04% realized gain captured most of the +1.28% best unrealized, with minimal drawdown (-0.24%). Dominant factor: a correct (or lucky) directional call with a well-timed exit; the only leakage was entering after a third of the eventual move was gone. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.